NFL Game Simulator

How our games are calculated

Every player has an overall rating, built mostly from how he performed against the rest of the league. Those ratings roll up into ten unit grades, such as QB room, pass rush and pass defense. Each one is compared with the league average.

Every play is drawn from real NFL play-by-plays: how often team runs or passes, how deep they throw, and how often drives end in sacks, fumbles, interceptions and how often the 26 kinds of penalties are called. A team’s grades tilt those odds. A better offensive line gives up fewer sacks, a better receiving corps completes more passes, and a better pass defense allows fewer.

Interceptions follow the real game. In 2025 there were 1.4 interceptions on average per game, which is roughly 2% of passes. Deep throws are picked about seven times as often as screens, and teams throwing into the red zone or chasing a late deficit throw more of them. Past teams bring their own ball-hawking: the 2013 Seahawks intercept passes almost twice as often as an average defense.

Quarterbacks play like themselves, too. Each one scrambles and sneaks at his real rate, so a running quarterback turns some would-be throws into runs. A quarterback's touchdown to interception rate heavily depends on his ability to scramble, his pressure rate (assumed by OL ranking), the game scenario, the pass coverage he faces, as well as his receiving corp.

Difference between "Regular Season" and "Stats Only"

It is undeniable that luck and penalties have an enormous impact on games. In fact, in the 2025 regular season, 145 of 272 games (53.3%) were decided by one score. Magical runs in the playoffs are a combination of excellent performances, but also luck. When simulating teams from previous years, we have to account for both their player overalls, as well as their regular season performance. Since we cannot account for luck, we decided that games can either be calculated purely by their player overalls, or with their player overalls plus their regular season performance. A team with a mediocre roster on paper who does well in the playoffs and had a good regular season will benefit with "Regular season" mode applied. Conversely, if a miracle team wins the Super Bowl, we have to account for luck, so the game mode can be set to "Stats Only".